Smlr_net December 2009

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[IWS] CRS: TRADE AGREEMENTS: IMPACT ON THE U.S. ECONOMY [10 November 2009]]
by Eugene McElroy 23 Dec '09

23 Dec '09

Congressional Research Service (CRS) Trade Agreements: Impact on the U.S. Economy James K. Jackson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance November 10, 2009 http://opencrs.com/document/RL31932/2009-11-10/download/1013/ [full-text, 24 pages] Summary The United States is in the process of considering a number of trade agreements. In addition, the 111th Congress may address the issue of trade promotion authority (TPA), which expired on July 1, 2007. These agreements range from bilateral trade agreements with countries that account for meager shares of U.S. trade to multilateral negotiations that could affect large numbers of U.S. workers and businesses. During this process, Congress likely will be presented with an array of data estimating the impact of trade agreements on the economy, or on a particular segment of the economy. An important policy tool that can assist Congress in assessing the value and the impact of trade agreements is represented by sophisticated models of the economy that are capable of simulating changes in economic conditions. These models are particularly helpful in estimating the effects of trade liberalization in such sectors as agriculture and manufacturing where the barriers to trade are identifiable and subject to some quantifiable estimation. Barriers to trade in services, however, are proving to be more difficult to identify and, therefore, to quantify in an economic model. In addition, the models are highly sensitive to the assumptions that are used to establish the parameters of the model and they are hampered by a serious lack of comprehensive data in the services sector. Nevertheless, the models do provide insight into the magnitude of the economic effects that may occur across economic sectors as a result of trade liberalization. These insights are especially helpful in identifying sectors expected to experience the greatest adjustment costs and, therefore, where opposition to trade agreements is likely to occur. This report examines the major features of economic models being used to estimate the effects of trade agreements. It assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the models as an aid in helping Congress evaluate the economic impact of trade agreements on the U.S. economy. In addition, this report identifies and assesses some of the assumptions used in the economic models and how these assumptions affect the data generated by the models. Finally, this report evaluates the implications for Congress of various options it may consider as it assesses trade agreements. Contents Background ..........................................................................................................................1 An Overview of the Major Agreements .................................................................................1 Multilateral Agreements ..................................................................................................1 Regional Trade Agreements ............................................................................................3 Completed Bilateral Trade Agreements ...........................................................................5 Signed Bilateral Trade Agreements Requiring Congressional Approval ...........................7 Pending Bilateral Trade Agreements................................................................................8 Trade Liberalization and the Gains From Trade .....................................................................9 Production Gains.............................................................................................................9 Adjustment Costs..........................................................................................................10 Consumption Gains....................................................................................................... 11 Economic Growth ......................................................................................................... 11 Estimating the Economic Impact of Trade Agreements ........................................................12 Overview......................................................................................................................12 The Michigan Model and Estimates ..............................................................................13 Investment and Capital Flows .......................................................................................16 Data on Barriers to Trade in Services ............................................................................18 Implications for Congress ...................................................................................................20 Tables Table 1. Major Components of U.S. Gross Domestic Product ....................................................10 Table 2. Estimated Economic Effects on the United States of a 33% Reduction in Barriers to Trade in Agriculture, Manufactures, and Services at the Doha Development Round......14 Table 3. Estimated Economic Effects on the United States of Free Trade Agreements with Various Trading Partners................15 Table 4. Projected Sectoral Employment Effects (Job Gains and Losses) in the United States of Various Multilateral Trade Agreements.......16 Table 5. Projected Sectoral Employment Effects (Job Gains and Losses) in the United States of Various Regional and Bilateral Trade Agreements........17 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................21 **************************************** Stuart Basefsky Director, IWS News Bureau Institute for Workplace Studies Cornell/ILR School 16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor New York, NY 10016 Telephone: (607) 255-2703 Fax: (607) 255-9641 E-mail: smb6(a)cornell.edu<mailto:smb6@cornell.edu> **************************************** -- Eugene McElroy Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations Library 50 Labor Center Way New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901 732-932-9513 tel: 732-932-9513 ********

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[IWS] CRS: CHINA-U.S. RELATIONS: CURRENT ISSUES & IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY [20 November 2009]]
by Eugene McElroy 23 Dec '09

23 Dec '09

Congressional Research Service (CRS) China-U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy Kerry Dumbaugh, Specialist in Asian Affairs November 20, 2009 http://opencrs.com/document/R40457/2009-11-20/download/1013/ [full-text, 39 pages] Summary The bilateral relationship between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China (PRC) is vitally important, touching on a wide range of areas including, among others, economic policy, security, foreign relations, and human rights. U.S. interests with China are bound together much more closely now than even a few years ago. These extensive inter-linkages have made it increasingly difficult for either government to take unilateral actions without inviting far-reaching, unintended consequences. The Administration of President Barack Obama has inherited from the George W. Bush Administration not only a greater array of policy mechanisms for pursuing U.S.-China policy, but a more complex and multifaceted U.S.-China relationship where the stakes are higher and where U.S. action may increasingly be constrained. Economically, the United States and China have become symbiotically intertwined. China is the second-largest U.S. trading partner, with total U.S.-China trade in 2008 reaching an estimated $409 billion. It also is the second largest holder of U.S. securities and the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries used to finance the federal budget deficit, positioning China to play a crucial role, for good or ill, in the Obama Administration's plans to address the recession and the deteriorating U.S. financial system. At the same time, China's own substantial levels of economic growth have depended heavily on continued U.S. investment and trade, making China's economy highly vulnerable to a significant economic slowdown in the United States. Meanwhile, other bilateral problems provide a continuing set of diverse challenges. They include difficulties over the status and well-being of Taiwan, ongoing disputes over China's failure to protect U.S. intellectual property rights, the economic advantage China gains from not floating its currency, and growing concerns about the quality and safety of products exported by China. China's more assertive foreign policy and continued military development also have significant long-term implications for U.S. global power and influence. Some U.S. lawmakers have suggested that U.S. policies toward China should be reassessed in light of these trends. During the Bush Administration, the U.S. and China cultivated regular high-level visits and exchanges of working level officials, resumed military-to-military relations, cooperated on antiterror initiatives, and worked closely on the Six Party Talks to restrain and eliminate North Korea's nuclear weapons activities. These and other initiatives of engagement are likely to continue in some fashion during the Obama presidency. Obama Administration officials already have made known their views about China's importance for U.S. interests. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton included China in her first official trip abroad as Secretary in February 2009, which included stops in Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, and China (February 20-22). In addition, the Administration established a new Strategic and Economic Dialogue with the PRC in 2009, and President Obama in November 2009 made his first official visit to China. This report addresses relevant policy questions in current U.S.-China relations, discusses trends and key legislation in the current Congress, and provides a chronology of developments and highlevel exchanges. It will be updated as events warrant. Additional details on the issues discussed here are available in other CRS products, noted throughout this report. For background information and legislative action during the 110th Congress, see CRS Report RL33877, China- U.S. Relations in the 110th Congress: Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy, by Kerry Dumbaugh. CRS products can be found on the CRS website at http://www.crs.gov/. Contents Recent Developments..................................................................................................................1 Background and Overview..........................................................................................................1 China's Importance and Implications for U.S. Policy.............................................................2 Current Issues in U.S.-China Relations........................................................................................3 President Obama State Visit to China, 2009.....................................................................3 Chinese Tire Imports.............................................................................................................4 Global Financial Crisis..........................................................................................................4 Uighur Protests in Xinjiang: July 2009 ..................................................................................5 Military and National Security Issues ....................................................................................6 South China Sea Incidents...............................................................................................7 China's Growing Military Power.....................................................................................7 PRC Space Activities ......................................................................................................8 Economic and Trade Issues ...................................................................................................9 Currency Valuation .........................................................................................................9 Unfair Trade Subsidies ..................................................................................................10 Intellectual Property Rights ...........................................................................................10 Concerns about Product Safety............................................................................................ 11 Tibet ..................................................................................................................................12 U.S.-PRC Official Dialogues...............................................................................................13 The Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) .............................................................13 Taiwan...............................................................................................................................15 Prospects for U.S. Taiwan Policy...................................................................................16 U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan ............................................................................................16 Taiwan's Bid for U.N. Observer Status..........................................................................17 Resumption of PRC-Taiwan Talks.................................................................................18 China's Foreign Relations ...................................................................................................20 Environmental Issues ..........................................................................................................22 Domestic Political Issues.....................................................................................................23 Social Stability..............................................................................................................23 Human Rights ...............................................................................................................24 China-Related Legislation in the 111th Congress ........................................................................26 Chronology of Events ...............................................................................................................29 Appendixes Appendix A. Selected Visits by U.S. and PRC Officials.............................................................32 Appendix B. Selected U.S. Government Reporting Requirements..............................................34 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................36 **************************************** Stuart Basefsky Director, IWS News Bureau Institute for Workplace Studies Cornell/ILR School 16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor New York, NY 10016 Telephone: (607) 255-2703 Fax: (607) 255-9641 E-mail: smb6(a)cornell.edu<mailto:smb6@cornell.edu> **************************************** -- Eugene McElroy Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations Library 50 Labor Center Way New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901 732-932-9513 tel: 732-932-9513 ********

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NYTimes.com: Latino Leaders Use Churches in Census Bid
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 23 Dec '09

23 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. US | December 23, 2009 Latino Leaders Use Churches in Census Bid By JULIA PRESTON A nationwide drive urging Latinos, especially illegal immigrants, to participate in the census is focusing on evangelical churches. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/23/us/23latino.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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NYTimes.com: Americans Without Work
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 23 Dec '09

23 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. OPINION | December 23, 2009 Editorial: Americans Without Work Washington must make generating new jobs for adults, as well as inner-city teenagers, the undisputed priority for 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/23/opinion/23wed1.ready.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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Adrienne Eaton interviewed in ESPN's "Athletics Arms Race"
by Eugene McElroy 22 Dec '09

22 Dec '09

thanks to Dean David Finegold for this lead: ESPN Show - ESPN's "Outside the Lines" did a show on the "Athletics Arms Race" profiling the rise of Rutgers' football program, which includes an interview with Adrienne Eaton. The show can be viewed at: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4756802 <http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4756802&categoryid=3286128> &categoryid=3286128 -- Eugene McElroy Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations Library 50 Labor Center Way New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901 732-932-9513 tel: 732-932-9513 ********

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NYTimes.com: Immigration Enforcement Fuels Spike in U.S. Cases
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 22 Dec '09

22 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. US | December 22, 2009 Immigration Enforcement Fuels Spike in U.S. Cases By JOHN SCHWARTZ Federal prosecutions hit a new high this fiscal year, with a sharp increase in cases against immigration violators. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/22/us/22crime.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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NYTimes.com: New Jersey College Is Beset by Accusations
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 22 Dec '09

22 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. EDUCATION | December 22, 2009 New Jersey College Is Beset by Accusations By SAM DILLON The president of Stevens Institute of Technology is accused of plundering the endowment and receiving illegal loans. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/22/education/22stevens.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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NYTimes.com: New Programs Aim to Lure Young Into Digital Jobs
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 21 Dec '09

21 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. TECHNOLOGY | December 21, 2009 New Programs Aim to Lure Young Into Digital Jobs By STEVE LOHR The country needs more cool nerds - people who can use computing in ways that haven't even been thought of yet. High schools are starting to do their part. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/technology/21nerds.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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NYTimes.com: China's Export of Labor Faces Scorn
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 21 Dec '09

21 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. INTERNATIONAL / ASIA PACIFIC | December 21, 2009 Uneasy Engagement: China's Export of Labor Faces Scorn By EDWARD WONG China is increasingly known for shipping out cheap labor, and a backlash against Chinese workers has grown in Africa and Asia. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/world/asia/21china.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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NYTimes.com: Labor Data Show Surge in Hiring of Temp Workers
by ciudadviejo＠yahoo.com 21 Dec '09

21 Dec '09

This page was sent to you by: ciudadviejo(a)yahoo.com. BUSINESS / ECONOMY | December 21, 2009 Labor Data Show Surge in Hiring of Temp Workers By LOUIS UCHITELLE Employers might soon take the next step of bringing on permanent workers if recovery seems durable. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/business/economy/21temps.html?emc=eta1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL This e-mail was sent to you by a friend through NYTimes.com's E-mail This Article service. For general information about NYTimes.com, write to help(a)nytimes.com. NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

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Smlr_net December 2009